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Want to know how Roddy fared with his 2008 predictions? Read on and judge for yourself.
PREDICTION
1. Credit crunch: "No surprises here - the sub-prime loans crisis will see a credit squeeze in 2008. Large and medium-sized contract hire companies should ride the storm comfortably providing they are ship-shape but some of the smaller players may find it harder to keep afloat. Car dealerships, however, will be hit as private new and used car buyers find it harder to obtain loans."
REALITY
"There will inevitably be consolidation but no major contract hire fallers yet. Car dealerships are being hit badly with several going to the wall."
PREDICTION
2. Oil/dollar stability: "Despite the current weak US Dollar and high oil prices, analysts expect that global interests will be best served by a stronger US Dollar, which will recover some of its previous value during the course of 2008. As a consequence, oil prices, while close to the $101 barrel record of the late 70s, should drop once the dollar recovers its strength."
REALITY
"The US Dollar is stronger and the oil price lower - in fact the lowest it's been in nearly four years!"
PREDICTION
3. Climate change: "Governments will have to wake up to the biggest challenge mankind has ever had to face. The proof is now incontrovertible, with peer-reviewed research of several thousand top scientists agreeing the probability of global warming being man-made is greater than 90% and if nothing is done about it average temperatures could rise by as much as six degrees Centigrade by the end of the decade. The findings are endorsed by all the world's major governments without qualification. Future Government action, post-Bali, will impact our daily lives including driving."
REALITY
"Even the incoming US Administration has agreed to sign up to post-Kyoto, a total U-turn!"
PREDICTION
4. New car trends: "Given the above, vehicle manufacturers will bring out more sub-120g/k cars. Already they are under pressure to produce cars emitting on average less than 120g/km by 2012, a target they baulked at during the Frankfurt motor show without offering alternatives. With proposed congestion charging based on CO2 targets, there will be pressure from drivers for greener cars. The new retro-chic Fiat 500 is Car of the Year 2007. Expect more economical and smaller cars next year."
REALITY
"And more and more, as people abandon their gas guzzlers in droves."
PREDICTION
5. Congestion charging: "The charges will go up and more towns and cities will introduce congestion charging. Only two do so to date but the figure will increase dramatically. And, as mentioned, CO2-based charging has to be just around the corner too."
REALITY
"Much slower roll-out than anticipated with Manchester only holding its congestion charge referendum on December 11."
PREDICTION
6. ECOS: "The future of employee car ownership schemes is uncertain and we need clarity from government. However, we believe ECOS has its place in the fleet mix. After all, it's all about consumer choice and some employees will want to opt for this route."
REALITY
"ECOS now clarified by Government."
PREDICTION
7. Sweeteners?: "2008 will be a tough year and there is nothing to suggest otherwise. The only glimmer is that the Bank of England expects the following year could be better. What might make 2008 more palatable is if Prime Minister, Gordon Brown decided to hold a General Election in 2009. Then expect the introduction of some vote-catching measures late in 2008 that could sweeten the end of the year. The bitter pill, however, is if we entered a worldwide recession."
REALITY
"No General Election on the horizon, a tough year and a very bitter pill to swallow as we enter recession. The Bank of England got it totally wrong."
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