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"One of the few positive, indirect upsides of the recession - and the decline in new car sales - has been a subsequent shortage of de-fleeted vehicles in the used car market, which has kept prices high," he says. "[This is] one of the key issues facing the industry over the next couple of years, and one we all have to be very aware of: the strong growth we've seen in the new car market following 19 consecutive rises in monthly new car sales.
"Whilst many in the motor industry will see this as positive news, and further evidence of our economic recovery, you don't have to look back too far to see the impact a new car market of 2.4 million or 2.5 million can bring.
"How much of a 'correction' in values there will be is a question all lessors have to face and it is one we all need to be very aware of given our current projections of future resale values in the next few years."
Graham agrees that a tipping point for used values is the elephant in the room, as is the possibility of a lower demand for cars going forward.
"What always worries me during a stable year is that I hope people have long enough memories to think about what will happen to used car residual values in three or four years' time and the same goes for the new market. That worries me - we all know what happens when the market is forced up too high.
"The total mobility scenario - people are beginning to sit up and take notice. There's less automatic demand to have a car and that's something, as an industry, we need to have an eye on. There are more and more young, 20-something graduates living in urban areas that don't necessarily want to have a car, so we need to look at total mobility solutions. Most good fleet management companies will cover this."
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