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The key factor driving the used van market into 2015 is the supply of good retail quality stock, or rather the lack of it.
Duncan Ward, BCA's general manager for commercial vehicles, says: "A lack of good van stock means there is plenty of competition for the best examples reaching the market. Buyers particularly like any vehicle with a good, useable specification or specialist equipment, and there is always demand for Lutons, dropsides and tippers."
Ward sees demand from the construction industry ramping up next year due to the needs of numerous infrastructure projects, road network improvement schemes and house-building projects. Builders and their associated trades are some of the biggest buyers of LCVs, and BCA is expecting demand to be strong "for some time ahead".
Additionally, the digital shopping revolution continues to generate the need for parcel, courier and delivery vans of all types and capacities, which is delivering broad-based demand into the used sector and keeping values firm.
Ward says: "The used LCV market will continue to experience a shortfall of stock for some time ahead, a result of the collapse of the new market in the immediate post-recession period."
While BCA believes van demand will increase next year, Cap believes van values will stall in 2015 due to reaching an unsustainable level.
Values of three-year-old vans have risen by around 50% since 2010, according to Cap's Red Book, which gives the example of a short-wheelbase, 60,000-mile Transit having increased in value from £4800 to £7100 over this period.
"Nobody in the industry, including ourselves, anticipated the rate at which demand has increased," says Cap's commercial vehicle forecast values expert Tim Cattlin.
"Economic recovery has therefore unleashed serious pent-up demand into the auction halls and onto the trader's pitch."
Cattlin believes that thanks to 2011's substantial market recovery of new sales, the used market will alter as replacement cycles result in these vehicles filtering into it as the year progresses.
"We believe the market for used LCVs will remain buoyant for the next few months, but values will begin to ease," said Cattlin.
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