Ask a manufacturer for some EVs when this article is first published, and it will bite your hand off. Anything that tips the numbers in favour of that 28% ZEV mandate will warrant red-carpet treatment. 

The push on electric car registrations is now arguably a feature of the back end of the year, but it is only part of the reason why short-cycle registrations – never good news for used car values – increased throughout 2025. Experts are not predicting a crash, but they believe fleets should tread carefully and do their homework to avoid a sting when remarketing. 

“If you’re looking at ex-fleet EVs, the prices are low; they’re comparable with the fossil-fuel vehicles,” says Rupert Pontin, head of insight and communications at Brego, “but if we continue to see the level of discounting and pre-registration that we’re seeing with EVs, then there will be more downward pressure on used pricing, and that scares me a little bit.”

That said, EVs are not alone in the short-cycle game and, if anything, may have been less subject to pre-reg after the September plate change. According to Derren Martin – formerly of Cap HPI, now an independent consultant working for Percayso, among others – the percentage of 75-plate EVs registered since 1 September was proportionately lower than the SMMT’s 22.4% year-to-date average for new EV registrations. 

“There’s a fair bit of pre-reg volume,” he says, speaking in late October. “I wouldn’t say it’s anything to worry about in particular and it’s definitely growing, but only 17% of those are electric vehicles. However, if you do pre-reg you obviously don’t get the [electric car] grant, so that could have an impact and make you not want to do pre-reg on EVs.”

A source told Business Car that 24.7% of the 312,891 new cars sold in September were registered on the final day of the month, while around 100,000 were registered in the final four days. Pre-registration alone would not have accounted for all of those, but the figures point to an increase in pressure and last-minute targets. 

“This is probably less about the ZEV mandate and more about market share,” says Philip Nothard, Cox Automotive’s insight director. Martin agrees, and credits it more to established manufacturers fighting back against new entrants. 

“My take on pre-reg – and it’s never an exact science – is that it’s the legacy brands doing it rather than the Chinese,” he says. “The [new] Chinese brands have got 11% or 12% market share over the last month or so. That puts the legacy brands under pressure… the Chinese are trying to get extra volume, but they’re using the retail and the fleet channels more. 

“The biggest 75-plate volume was Volvo, then it was Vauxhall and Volkswagen. They stand out quite a lot more than the others.”

Along with 21 other manufacturers, Volvo’s and Vauxhall’s scores fell in the latest National Franchised Dealer Association Dealer Attitude Survey, although Volkswagen was one of eight OEMs with a higher score. Last published in November, manufacturer targets feature heavily in twice-yearly assessment.  

Then there is rental. All but abandoned by manufacturers when new vehicles were scarce, it has resumed its status as a convenient bolt hole now that they want to shift some metal. Electric vehicles are a trickier sell to rental firms, though; beyond company car drivers who want like-for-like when their usual EV is out of action, its hop-in-and-go nature does not lend itself quite so readily to electric. Business Car has also been told that rental firms – especially those with US-based parent companies – are reluctant to take on cars (likely EVs) from Chinese new entrant brands due to concerns about data and alleged contract breaches. 

Irrespective of brand or fuel type, rental new car registrations were reportedly up 29% year-on-year and 40% year-to-date as of September. Equivalent SMMT fleet registration figures showed respective rises of 16.9% and 3.8%. 

“Rental is certainly back on,” says Nothard, “and so are those last-minute, end-of-month deals. 

“Some of that won’t be pre-registered; some of it will be a package deal with a rental operator where they [the manufacturer] pick the phone up and say ‘Mr rental company, how do you fancy a thousand cars with 40% off?’. The question is – and this always arises – what will happen with the defleet activity?”

We reiterate that no one told us used car values are about to tank, and it is worth remembering that prices are still proportionately higher than they were before the pandemic, but all of the above – along with wider macroeconomic malaise – apply pressure particularly to relatively young and electric used cars – the types of which you find on leasing firms’ books. 

“As we come towards the end of this fourth quarter, you are hearing more from the leasing companies about damage limitation, because some of them face very heavy losses – predominantly from EVs,” adds Nothard. 

It sounds obvious, but the best protection for fleets is to be selective and varied about what they buy, from whom and when they sell it. 

“You don’t want to go all in on any particular EV,” explains Martin. “Like anything, you want to be spreading your risk a bit. Think about some of those brands that are really growing this year; if you’ve got a load of those cars on, you need to be careful. 

“The new Chinese brands – especially the EVs – you need to do some due diligence on their used car offerings. Have they got an approved used car programme in place and are they responsible with their remarketing? That comes down to dialogue with more people at the company than just the salesperson.” 

Pontin is cautiously optimistic about the New Year, which is when values traditionally rise. “The early part of the year, I hope, will pick up a little bit in the way that it usually does. It’s been slow the last few years and I think fleets should be cognisant of that, but – although it’s not as big as people say it is – there is still a hole of that three- and four-year-old vehicle profile. 

“People generally don’t do as many miles as they used to pre-Covid and that’s a good thing, because it means that a vehicle will have a much lower mileage and it will have a higher price point… so for those that are remarketing anything coming off fleet – particularly in the beginning of the year when it gets a little bit busier – there should be that hole in the market where there are vehicles that haven’t done as many miles.” 

As always, there are also things fleets can do to bump up values at the back end. Refurbishment – specifically, its worth – is like a tide, because it ebbs and flows with the market. Pontin thinks it is time to roll up our trousers. 

“Refurb your cars,” he says, “do the smart repairs and make them look pretty. I think the market will pick up at the beginning of next year, but certainly at the moment, there’s a little bit of choice out there for a consumer, and if the car isn’t absolutely right, there’ll be one that is. It’s usually worth doing at a quieter time of year, so I would say do it. You’re going to get your money back.”

Some remarketing specialists have reportedly gone big on refurbishment in recent times, to the extent of undertaking systematic, significant repairs to elevate vehicles to a National Association of Vehicle Auctions (NAMA) grade one standard, making them completely retail-ready for dealers. If that sounds excessive, tactical refurbishment – where vehicles are repaired to meet a particular NAMA grade, balancing cost with saleability – is always worthy of consideration.  

As for the rest of this year, anyone in the market for EVs might want to remember those red carpets – and your best bet for good residual values is to stroll up more than one of them.

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