Error parsing XSLT file: \xslt\FacebookOpenGraph.xslt Roddy Graham's Blog: 5 November 2009 - Climate cost
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Roddy Graham's Blog: 5 November 2009 - Climate cost

Date: 05 November 2009

Roddy Graham is chairman of the ICFM and commercial director of Leasedrive Velo

Money can often be a deal breaker and the Copenhagen climate change summit may be no different.

Currently, there is a deep abyss between what the developed countries are prepared to pay to secure climate change and what the developing countries are demanding by way of support to toe the line.

Will a compromise be reached or will Copenhagen be yet another nail in the coffin, as we march inexorably towards the destruction of our planet?

At the core of the deal is the amount the developed countries will pay the developing countries, led by China and India, to reduce their carbon dioxide emissions while at the same time expanding their burgeoning economies.

For 200 years, the western economies have been chucking CO2 into the atmosphere like there was no tomorrow. Now, while accepting responsibility for their past misdemeanours, they expect the developing countries not to follow suit, a position clearly they will have to pay for.

If you were China, you wouldn't want to hold back economic development purely to appease the West's concerns on climate change. Naturally, you would seek compensation to put the brakes on economic growth!

So what are the developing countries looking for? A cool £245bn! The EU is the first not to blink and has countered with its own proposal - £20 to £50bn per annum depending on what actions the developing world takes, more specifically the poorer countries. The UK's contribution could be around £1bn.

The rich western economies have accepted that, since they have caused the problem, they must provide the solution and will have to assist the G77 developing countries to grow economically in a low-carbon way. This will cost money, huge sums of money. Many of the G77 developing countries are very poor and the only way to get their people out of poverty is to grow rapidly economically. It's almost a Catch 22 for the climate.

The monies to be paid by the developed world has to go towards two main objectives - reducing carbon emissions and preparing for climate change, such as building flood defences. The first is called mitigation, the second adaptation.

China and the G77 calculated in August that the developed countries should pay between 0.5% and 1% of their gross national product each year, equating to nearly double to four times the current amount of overseas development aid.

Now here comes another crunch. China and the G77 insist this money must be in addition to that development aid, not a substitute for it.

Hence, the significance of the EU response.

This week we have the Copenhagen pre-negotiations when the 192 countries involved in the treaty try to thrash out some kind of compromise. And a big compromise it's going to have to be given the chasm between the two figures currently on the table - £20bn versus £245bn!

In addition, the EU has insisted that while China and India will be beneficiaries, they should also contribute too, as they are rich developing countries.

The developing countries it is estimated will eventually account for 90% of all future emissions growth, which is why securing a deal is so important. It also kind of puts the contribution of the automotive industry into perspective. In the UK, road transport accounts for around 20% of CO2 emissions with cars responsible for 11.5% of this.

We must continue doing our bit but we must all hope and pray the policy makers do theirs as well and thrash out a workable deal come December. After all, the future of our planet is at stake.



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