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Heavy, large and very powerful vehicles are firmly in the cross hairs of proposed CO2-related EU draft legislation that could see their manufacturers fined billions of Euros and trigger a marked increase in car prices.
After the collective failure of the European car industry to meet voluntary CO2 targets set back in 1998, the EU is now proposing to fine any car maker (including non-European brands) whose European CO2 emissions fleet average exceeds 130g/km after 2012.
Based on 2006 figures, brands like BMW, at 182g/km, Mercedes with 184g/km (as DaimlerChrysler) and Porsche, with a huge 282g/km, need to dramatically improve their averages .
For those that don't, the EU is suggesting a 'penalty premium', starting in 2012, of 20 euros (£14) per 1g/km over the agreed average multiplied by the number of cars sold by the maker in question. This penalty would rise in yearly increments to 95 euros by 2015 and thereafter.
The EU proposal states: "Naturally the premium must be set at a level which encourages the manufacturers to innovate and deploy new fuel-efficient technologies rather than accepting to pay the penalty. It is expected that most manufacturers will meet their target set by the legislation and so that they will not have to pay significant penalties.
"Our investigations show that cars will rise in price by a certain amount, although this will be compensated by fuel savings. On average purchase prices may increase by up to 6%."
Car makers will still be allowed to produce heavier cars that emit more than 130g/km without penalty as long as they are balanced out by lighter cars emitting less than that figure.
This still doesn't help manufacturers that don't make small or light vehicles, so the EU is also allowing 'CO2 alliances'. Thus Porsche, which - as the graph illustrates - is currently horribly exposed as a maker of high-emitting, high-performance petrol sports cars and off-roaders, could team up with the broader range of the VW group in which it has a major shareholding.
For big independents such as BMW and Daimler, some early reports have suggested links could be made with low-emitting partners like PSA to buy 'carbon permits' from them, although a BMW spokesman dismissed such an idea and branded the whole regulation "unrealistic".
Smaller independent makers selling fewer than 10,000 vehicles per year in Europe - such as Aston Martin - who cannot or do not wish to join a pool can instead apply to the Commission for an individual target.
The draft regulation will be discussed by the European Council and European Parliament this year and could be adopted directly without the need for individual national laws.
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