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Cap forecasting changes to 'smooth' disposal flow

Date: 28 July 2011   |   Author:

Residual value expert Cap is working on a new forecasting system that will increase the frequency of residual value data from the current monthly publishing schedule.

Like rival Glass's, which BusinessCar reported earlier this month is making similar moves, Cap is setting up a "sophisticated system" designed to more rapidly and accurately reflect changes in the market, potentially daily.

"We're keen not to lead the market - we reflect it and reflecting on a monthly basis is not adequate any more. One or two processes that produce the monthly guide can at times inhibit the process of selling a car," Cap chief editor Chris Crow told BusinessCar. "Anticipating a significant drop in the book can delay a transaction in the auction hall and we've seen that happen." Cap hopes that volumes through auction houses will become smoother as a result.

Cap's new system will launch early next year, and the firm is anticipating being a couple of months ahead of arch-rival Glass's. Crow said interpreting the data will be key.

"We have a team of market experts and it would be a case of interpreting the analysis," he said. "It isn't just about numbers, it's about information; you need to provide commentary so you can understand what you're seeing in the marketplace."

Crow said there may be times where external influences such as an abnormal defleet by a manufacturer or leasing company might make a temporary blip. "We may wish to not reflect or quantify a change in the market to create a very clear understanding behind movements," he said.

Crow described the development as "a massive thing" for the firm, and said the more sophisticated system will be simple to operate and can analyse data quicker and with greater accuracy. "We can see where we need to go, we've heard from customers and that's what we're doing," he said. "We've been on this from the beginning of the year. It is a significant change so it's important we get it right first time."

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