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The set-up of an infrastructure will be a challenge, with estimates putting the number of refuelling stations at 65 by 2015, 300 by 2025 and 1150 by 2030. That compares with the most recent figure of around 9000 petrol stations in the UK.
Emma Guthrie, business development manager for industrial gas and equipment expert Air Products, predicted that the initial 65 hydrogen refuelling stations will be collected in corridors or regions, such as the M4 or M1, to enable city-to-city travel.
"We're very close. 2015 will be a pivotal year. The level of action is ramping up," she said.
The infrastructure debate has been moved on by both Morrisons and Sainsbury's joining the UK H2 Mobility programme, a group of interested parties that includes three Government departments, carmakers Daimler, Hyundai, Nissan and Toyota, and several other parties across areas such as research and refuelling.
"It shows there is intent to get onto forecourts, not just stand-alone sites," Guthrie said.
Alongside the availability, fuel price is vital to hydrogen's success. Dr Graham Cooley, boss of hydrogen power and refuelling station expert ITM Power, said the price had to get to £8 per kilogramme of hydrogen to even be comparable, let alone offering the cost advantage that a new fuel would require to help get it established. He pointed to the German model, where the government has capped prices at ?10 per kilogramme, although price parity is unlikely to be enough to convince fleets to change to an unknown power source.
The other huge challenge is the cost of the vehicles themselves. Hyundai so far refuses to put a value on what it will be charging, but admits it is both more than it would want, and that it won't be making money on them while the technology becomes established.
"The vehicle is more expensive than we would like as a commercial offering," admitted Hyundai's ix35 fuel-cell product manager Robin Haynes. "There's no profit margin in it at this time and we understand the price we have to pay to put it out there."
Question marks
So the elements appear to be falling into place for hydrogen to have a shot at establishing itself, but there are still plenty of question marks, unknowns and difficulties to solve.
"There are challenges to overcome - the vehicles will cost more than conventional ones, and we need early adopters, fleets etc, to be forward-thinkers. We need the Government to support it," concluded Element Energy's Stewart.
"We have already done focus groups with fleets and they showed strong intent as long as their cost requirements will be met."
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