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Indications that the new car market could hit 2.2 million units in 2013 have led KwikCarcost to activate what it called a 'major RV review'.
Of the 632 car and LCV model ranges on the whole life cost expert's system, the values of 112 have dropped by more than 4% in the latest monthly review, with Kwikcarcost owner KeeResources' MD Denis Keenan saying the "extra couple of hundred thousand units" over the stable market of two million cars in 2012 "will make quite a significant difference".
Despite a greater proportion of new cars now coming back at four years and with lower mileages than was historically the case, the used market demand is deemed less able to support that level of extra volume. The good news is that residuals are coming down from a very high base.
"We are seeing pound note residual values the likes of which we have never seen before, and they peaked 7-10% higher than they have ever peaked before," said Keenan.
"We're not suggesting there will be a massive fall - cars will still be worth a lot of money, just not the near-ridiculous sums they are worth at the moment."
The firm is predicting a steady market going forward, but Keenan warned there could be another movement in 2014 when the impact of public sector cuts begins to be felt at a macro-economic level.
"Until we see the start of that we won't affect the book again," he said.
Keenan also raised concerns that, contrary to his firm's moves, other RV forecasters may be heading in the opposite direction.
The firm's monthly Carcost newsletter update predicted the likelihood of a "greater variance between providers during the back half of 2013, especially due to the flux that new and unproven systems and concepts will surely generate".
This comes against a backdrop of industry insiders raising concerns that the 'natural' figure for the UK new car market is around 1.8 million units.
"The rest is being forced one way or another," said a source, forecasting that a UK market of 2.4 million is possible as the European economy flounders and the UK becomes a more attractive proposition.
That sort of market could, it is claimed, create RV drops of up to 10% for three years after 2014.
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