We use cookies to ensure that we give you the best experience on our website. If you continue without changing your settings, we will assume that you are happy to receive all cookies on the Business Car website. However, if you would like to, you can change your cookies at any time
The start point for the best source of fleet information |
Sales of diesel cars in the UK could slump to just 15% of the market by 2025.
That's according to an academic study from Birmingham's Aston University.
Automotive expert Professor David Bailey said the 17% fall in diesel sales recorded by the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) in 2017 could be the start of a prolonged decline, with another double-digit drop possible in 2018.
Bailey said: "Diesel cars face a raft of challenges, each one of which could damage sales, and which are combining to kill off the domestic diesel sector, which was so rattled by the 'Dieselgate' scandal.
"They face a 'perfect storm' of bad PR over pollution, coupled with concerns over increasingly strict regulations and sinking second-hand values.
"Sales of diesels are set to fall by up to 10% in 2018, and they could have as little as 30% of the market by 2020 - shrinking rapidly to 15% by 2025. And this is despite diesels accounting for 50% or more of the market just a few years ago."
Bailey also issued a warning about the condition of the UK car market as a whole, after the SMMT reported the first annual sales drop for six years in 2017.
"The car market has been over-trading for some time now, which is why 2016 remains one of the best years on record for car sales, despite the marked slowdown in overall purchases," he said.
"But it's hardly good news for the sector. None of the factors acting as a brake on car sales has gone away: wages are being squeezed, inflation is creeping up.
"Then factor in interest rate rises and an ongoing strengthening of European car markets, cutting the number of cheap vehicles offloaded on the UK, and we could be looking at another cut in sales of between 5% and 10% in 2018."
Bailey said he did expect to see some growth in sales of electric and hybrid vehicles, and called for a diesel scrappage scheme to encourage drivers to move to electric power.
He said: "Governments have missed several opportunities to encourage drivers to switch to electric vehicles, starting way back in 2001 when there was a misconceived drive to get people to opt for diesels.
"Now that it's clear diesel is dying a slow death, the time is right for the government to take the initiative and offer up scrappage benefits to those who are prepared to ditch their diesels and switch to electric cars."
BusinessCar magazine ©2019
Business Car Magazine © 2020 | Business Car is part of NS Media Group.
