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Used vehicle supply shortage to continue during 2022, Cox Automotive predicts

Date: 07 February 2022   |   Author: Sean Keywood

The UK used car market is set for another year of demand outstripping supply, according to data firm Cox Automotive.

It said demand for used cars would remain high as the new market took time to recover from its own supply problems, caused by factors including the global semiconductor crisis.

Although Cox has predicted a year-on-year increase in used car sales in 2022, it still expects the number of transactions to be down on the pre-Covid average.

The company is forecasting 7.701 million used car transactions for 2022 - a 4.2% year-on-year increase, but 3% down on 2019.

The average age of used cars on the market has also increase, although it is nearly-new vehicles that are most in demand.

Cox insight and strategy director Philip Nothard said: "It's increasingly likely that we will see a continuation of many of the market dynamics we saw in 2021. 

"Although there are signs of new vehicle supply returning, it is currently very dependent on those manufacturers who have managed to secure the necessary materials to build vehicles and therefore keep production lines running. And even then, those manufacturers can only fulfil quotas on select models and derivatives.

"Manufacturers are slowly getting to grips with their production issues, but the situation is unlikely to improve as the year progresses. The new market recovery will be a prolonged and gradual process. 

"As a result, we will not see a flood of stock enter the market, but rather a gradual increase as the backlog of orders for new vehicles gets cleared, in turn generating much-needed stock for the used market."

Although supply remains restricted, Nothard believes average values of used cars may have now reached a high point - although he predicts any subsequent decrease in values will be slow.

He said: "As long as new car supply issues remain and used cars continue to be dripped into the market rather than released like a tsunami, then natural market dynamics dictate that values will remain at current levels for some time." 



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