Used EV values set to stabilise, Cap HPI says
Date:
12 July 2023
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Author: Sean Keywood
The value of used EVs is expected to stabilise during the second half of 2023, according to Cap HPI.
The automotive data firm said the values of numerous EV models had stabilised already or appeared close to a plateau, following some substantial decreases in recent months.
However, it said a small number remained weak and appeared to still have further to fall, with no common denominator or central theme governing how individual ranges were performing.
Cap HPI head of forecast strategy Dylan Setterfield said: "Many EV models are now looking good value, with trade values for the majority of models, where a comparison is possible, actually now below ICE equivalents. There is potential for some to increase from their current used value position.
"We assume further deflation in future and have factored this into our forecasts. There are small positive adjustments for the handful of models which have seen the heaviest falls."
Discussing the outlook for the wider used car market, Setterfield added: "The negative economic impact of any potential recession is expected to be outweighed by the reduction in used car supply already guaranteed by the lower new car registrations from the start of the pandemic onwards.
"Used car prices are not generally correlated with GDP growth, partly because there is a substantial element of core 'needs purchases' and also because reductions in consumer confidence and disposable income result in changes in used car buying, rather than preventing it; buyers may turn to older, smaller or higher mileage cars or turn to the used market instead of buying new.
"It is extremely hard to predict how retail demand will progress through the second half of 2023, especially given the complex economic situation. However, we still expect a gradual market adjustment over the next several months or so and certainly not a 'mirrored' fall from the earlier high point. The used value increases on some models have effectively set a new market and may not return to previous levels."
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