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Meeting the UK's carbon emissions reduction targets without a cut in car mileage overall is possible - but would require big changes in other areas.
That's according to modelling by the RAC Foundation, based on the Climate Change Committee's Balanced Net Zero Pathway, which requires annual car CO2 emissions to fall from around 57 million tonnes in 2021 to around 34 million tonnes by 2030 - a 40% reduction.
According to the research, if mileage is not reduced, success in this will depend on three other factors: the take-up of battery EVs; the proportion of car-driven miles accounted for by these EVs; and the rate at which petrol and diesel cars depart from the UK's vehicle parc.
The RAC Foundation said its modelling recognised existing government policies, such as the ban on the sale of new pure petrol and diesel cars from 2030, and the forthcoming Zero Emission Vehicle mandate, set to require a specified percentage of manufacturers' new vehicle sales to be zero emission each year from 2024.
However, it did not allow for any transformational shift in either the affordability of motoring or in public behaviours that might result from fresh policies yet to be announced.
The modelling found that if the total number of car-driven miles stayed steady or continued to grow, then battery electric cars would potentially have to account for some 35% of the total car fleet in 2030 (around 13.5 million electric cars compared to a projected 38.6 million cars in total), and that these would have to account for at least 37% of all car miles driven.
This contrasts with less than 2% of the cars on UK roads being battery EVs currently.
RAC Foundation director Steve Gooding said: "From the point of view of the planet the next car people buy is critical.
"Based on current trends getting the car fleet up to 35% pure battery-electric by 2030 without reducing driven miles looks like a monumentally steep challenge, like climbing Everest on a bad day.
"Bearing in mind that annual mileage per-car was already falling way before Covid maybe planning for a reduction in total car mileage wouldn't be as contentious as some fear, particularly if accompanied by complementary policies, such as support for public transport.
"Despite the challenge of austerity, if the Chancellor was canny he could use VED to push car buyers more firmly towards electric options, encourage petrol-car purchasers to choose models offering the best-in-class fuel-efficiency and in doing so actually raise some cash he could then use to cut the costs of electric motoring."
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