We use cookies to ensure that we give you the best experience on our website. If you continue without changing your settings, we will assume that you are happy to receive all cookies on the Business Car website. However, if you would like to, you can change your cookies at any time
The start point for the best source of fleet information |
The UK's new and used car markets are set for a year of stabilisation in 2024, according to Cox Automotive.
The data firm says it has reaffirmed its predictions for the coming 12 months, after sales data from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) proved the accuracy of its previous predictions.
According to the SMMT, just over 1.9 million new cars were registered in 2023 - less than 1% away from Cox's prediction.
In 2024, Cox is predicting 2,020,050 new vehicle registrations - which would represent an increase of 6.1% year-on-year - and 7,350,205 used car sales.
Cox Automotive insight director Philip Nothard said: "The SMMT's latest figures show that 2023 played out almost exactly as we predicted at the start of the year. With the actuals now published, we've re-reviewed our forecasts for 2024 and remain confident they paint an accurate picture of what we can expect over the next 12 months. I
"In summary, we anticipate a year of comparative stabilisation and modest growth in the continued evolution of how cars are bought, sold, owned, and used.
"The consistent accuracy of quarterly and annual forecasts is something we are very proud of and is a testament to our deep understanding of the wholesale and retail automotive markets and Cox Automotive's unshakeable commitment to providing valuable insights to our customers."
Nothard said that although Cox's forecast was for market growth, this would still represent a decline compared with the 2000-2019 average.
He said: "The health of the sector is improving, but the list of external forces shaping macro activity in automotive will get longer this year. Among these factors is the ZEV mandate, which prescribes the proportion of total annual sales that must be zero-emission vehicles. The agency sales model remains an unknown and we do not yet know the full implications of its expected, widespread introduction.
"There's also the fact that production is beginning to exceed demand for the first time since the pandemic. However, we're likely to see a split between manufacturers seeking profitability at the cost of volume and market share and those returning to a 'push' market at the cost of profit for volume and market dominance.
"On top of that, there is the much talked about but not-yet-seen price parity between ICE and EV vehicles, the continued emergence of new entrants in the EV market, such as BYD, now the biggest car manufacturer in the world. These new players will undoubtedly bring more choice and a greater variety of price points."
"The expected 2024 General Election may see a change of government as well as a raft of new legislative measures that will have implications for automotive."
BusinessCar magazine ©2019
Business Car Magazine © 2020 | Business Car is part of NS Media Group.
