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He also says that, rather than picking the smallest van that will do a job, operators are opting for a 3.5-tonne vehicle rather than a 2.8-tonner. "The difference in operator cost is very little against the extra flexibility," he comments. "Generally, operators are maximising their bangs for buck. It's a long-term thing - we've seen it slowly over the past 20 years."
Looking ahead, the SMMT is predicting 2013 could see growth of up to 5% in registrations. "When you go to a seminar or show etc. or speak to companies individually, they say it's okay, although we could do with a bit more business," says Base. "On a business level, there is a degree of confidence but it's not reflected in the figures. The whole industry has shrunk to fit the market and is more readily adjustable and flexible than the car market. As soon as we've got a little upturn or stability, everyone's happy."
What we won't see, though, is a return to the heady days of consistently high registrations, Base feels: "We're still coming from a very difficult place. I don't think we'll ever get back to 300,000 level, but we're slowly digging ourselves out."
He speculated that this may be helped by new product such as the Mercedes-Benz Citan and Ford's Transit Custom, with Ford also launching the Courier, Transit Connect and large Transit around the end of this year. "Perhaps people know the major players are launching new product this year, so maybe some are delaying."
However it spins out, the used vehicle demand illustrates that there is still a need for vehicles, and if or when that demand and relative lack of supply leads to higher prices, it could be as important in increasing new vehicle registrations as the much hoped-for increase in consumer confidence that will come when the economy final turns a corner.
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