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First, may I wish everyone a very happy and prosperous New Year! I trust everyone had a good break and took advantage of the opportunity to relax and spend time with family and friends.
Certainly, the festive break allowed me the time to reflect on a few things.
Looking at the bigger picture, we are probably entering one of the most significant periods in our world's history. China is set to overtake Germany as the third biggest economy this year and the US elections will see one of the biggest changes ever.
One thing's for sure, we have to have an improvement on one of the most disastrous Presidents ever. Forget the jokes like, "What happens when you shine a torch in George Bush's left ear? The light come out the right one!", or the fact that one of the most popular selling items over the Pond is a calendar counting down to him stepping from office, history may well determine him to have been one of the world's worst rulers ever. And I'm not alluding to the mess in Afghanistan and Iraq, or the potential conflict with Iran, I'm talking about America's 'head in the sand' attitude to the environment. As a superpower, it should be leading by example. Instead, a little country like Papua New Guinea has shamed it into almost walking out of Bali. The successor to Kyoto is our last hope of climate salvation and America digs its heels in!
So who should be the next President? A woman or a black person would certainly ring the changes. Barack Obama's win in Iowa has just been countered by Hilary Clinton's in New Hampshire. Those are the two hot favourites, as the Democrats are likely to sweep the Republicans. My vote - Barack Obama. He seems streets ahead of the rest in terms of various policy considerations.
Make no mistake. What happens in the USA over the course of the next twelve months will have widespread repercussions for the rest of us. The shame is that the successor to Kyoto will be negotiated while Bush completes his term, even though a new President will have been elected.
I mentioned what happens in the US affects us all. The economic pointers for the USA suggest a recession. Will it happen? If so, will it affect us, and the rest of the world? On the other side of the world, we have the booming economies of India and China to counterbalance the US downturn. If a recession does happen, the likelihood is that it will be short and sharp. The most recent lasted eight months. Over here, today's retail announcements suggest the high street retailers, bar John Lewis, are struggling. Another pointer? Gordon Brown tells us it will be tough but it does not have to mean a recession. There's a lot of talk and the worst thing that can happen is that we talk ourselves into a recession. Our company is currently doing fine and so are many others. It's up to the successful ones to lead the way.
Be prudent but take a positive attitude into 2008. And watch those US elections!
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