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2014 PREDICTIONS: What 2014 has in store...

Date: 13 January 2014

Data and technology

Brennan: Looking forward, it is probable that next year we will see the first real steps towards the connected car, as drivers increasingly link their personal devices to their vehicles, and driverless cars continue to inch towards widespread road testing.

Graham: Influencing driver behaviour can have a significant impact on fleet costs. More far-sighted use of available telematics technology can not only ensure that the vehicle asset is protected but that the all-important employee asset is too. The amount of big data now available is incredible and it is a matter of properly making use of that data, both from a legislative standpoint and from an intelligence viewpoint.

Telematics is now so sophisticated, it's not so much a question of what knowledge we need to collect but how do we correctly analyse it for the common good of company and driver. Predicting driver behaviour to head off negative behaviour is far better and more useful than correcting it once it has taken place. Predictive analytics will therefore be a key tool in the telematics armoury.

Keaney: Vehicle and driver data will be a key focus this year as companies try to ascertain what is available, where it is, who owns it and how it can be used. The fleet sector must understand the opportunities presented by connected vehicles and smartphone apps, as it will face increasing competition from technology companies, vehicle manufacturers and other transport operators.

Electric vehicles

Hogsden: CO2-emission legislation and Government funding will undoubtedly power new developments in electric and plug-in vehicles. The Government's pledge to invest tens of millions of pounds in developing infrastructure for electric vehicles shows confidence in its future.

And as manufacturers release new models to meet emission, efficiency and cost-saving demands within the marketplace, we are likely to see an increase in uptake.  

Keaney: There are plenty of technological developments on the horizon, and 2014 will see the biggest push yet from EV manufacturers. Renault and Nissan will aggressively market their products against new models from competitors including BMW, Ford, Audi and VW, and this competition should produce some more attractive pricing and aftermarket packages, stimulating volumes through the 10,000 barrier for the first time.

The Office for Low Emission Vehicles is keen to boost fleet uptake of ultra low-emission vehicles and is developing a new set of policy measures and tax incentives. These changes won't be implemented until 2015, so for the time being OLEV is likely to concentrate on boosting the awareness and understanding of ultra low-emission vehicles by working with organisations such as the BVRLA, the Association of Car Fleet Operators (ACFO) and the Energy Saving Trust.

Tax Disc 02

 

Any other business

Brennan: Amidst these predictions, there is one certainty that we can look forward to in 2014: the death of the paper tax disc, a move which was announced in the chancellor's Autumn Statement and one that is arguably long overdue.

Graham: As more organisations focus on their core activities, there will be more demand for fleet management. Medium and large-sized organisations will wish to leave fleet management to the experts and turn to fleet outsourcing specialists offering a wide range of services, from funding to salary sacrifice, and technological innovations. However, closer partnerships will be essential to maximising benefits, and clearer pricing transparency will become more prevalent.

As always, the number one prediction is that there will be more industry consolidation. The top five [leasing companies] registered the biggest fleet growth of 5%. As profits rise, and the wider economy continues to improve, certain leasing companies could become targets, and the sector will undoubtedly attract new investors. Interestingly, the biggest changes were in leadership, with six of the top 10 seeing new men behind the wheel, indicating possibilities for changes in direction.



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