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Business car operators could face higher insurance premiums if a Competition and Markets Authority investigation into private motor insurance brings measures aimed at controlling the cost faced by private drivers, warned the National Association of Bodyshops.
"We have said from the outset that this investigation is flawed because it focuses only on private car insurance," said NAB boss Frank Harvey.
"If they are going to try and cap or adjust private insurance, the whole market will flex to maintain its profits.
"Insurers could look to motorcycles or business [to make up for the reduction in profits], and probably fleets because it's a large volume and high cost, and they've got to take that as what else are these guys going to do?" he continued.
"Each insurer is likely to respond in the same way if there is some sort of cap."
The CMA, which took over from the Competition Commission this month, is due to publish a provisional decision on remedies in June ahead of the final report in September.
The initial investigation was prompted after a request from the Office of Fair Trading in September 2012 to look into a market it felt restricted or distorted competition in connection with the supply or acquisition of private motor insurance.
"We want to highlight this to the CMA and get reaction from the sector, to get the CMA to see how narrow the investigation is," said Harvey. "There is scope for insurance companies to flex their business to maintain profits."
The initial investigation was set up to look at the handling of non-fault claims in terms of additional cost incurred by insurance companies, the quality of repairs, and the insufficient comparison information at the point of buying add-on products, as well as looking at the behaviour of price comparison websites.
A possible blue sky for business car fleets, according to Harvey, is that insurance premiums have come down by 19% in the 18 months since the OFT made its request.
"They may say it's not as broken as we thought, market forces have taken over and it is self-regulating, so we'll let it run," he speculated.
The insurance industry disputed the NAB's claims.
"Commercial motor insurers - many of whom are specialists in this sector (such as Amlin and QBE) - tend not to rely on the ancillary income, which is likely to disappear in the next few years, and therefore I would expect competition in the commercial motor sector to remain fierce," Lloyds Market Association underwriting manager David Powell told BusinessCar.
"It is also possible that changes to the private car market could be at least partially implemented into the commercial market, either by agreement, or via subsequent study which recommended parallel changes.
"This would limit, or remove entirely, any differential effect on commercial customers."
"The main focus of the Competition Commission's investigation is on how insurers can ensure greater control of the claims that they have to pay from credit hire operators and claims management companies, who drive up the costs for insurers, leading ultimately to higher premiums," said an ABI spokesman.
"The Commission investigation is focused on private motor insurance (PMI) and as such, potential savings that PMI customers could potentially enjoy as a result of the commission's work, which will not be experienced by commercial customers.
"However, saying that commercial rates will go up as a result is a fundamental misunderstanding of the commission's work"
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